Sunday, August 11, 2013

Where is the ice? Depends on who you ask - WHOS GOT THE REAL BEEF?

How can something as imperical as "ICE" - frozen liquid, i.e. sea ice - have so many different interpretations?

Having monitored the National Weather Service, Canada Ice Service and Bemen University Polar View for almost five years - why can't these organizations "adjust" their presentations to within 'logical' errors of disagreement - instead what is presented are errors 3-4 times our of realms... HOW ABOUT WORKING TOGETHER RATHER THAN POINTING A FINGER.... BECAUSE THE FINGERS OF THE WORLD ARE NOW POINTING AT YOU. FIX THE PROBLEM - NOW!

Here are examples on August 10th from each organization:

National Weather Service - first text then graphic image:

FZAK80 PAFC 100105
ICEAFC

SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
505 PM AKDT FRIDAY 9 AUGUST 2013 

FORECAST VALID...WEDNESDAY 14 AUGUST 2013 

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

SYNOPSIS...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN
ALASKA ACROSS TO BANKS ISLAND WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL SPREAD TO BANKS ISLAND BY
MONDAY. 

-ARCTIC OCEAN-
-BEAUFORT SEA-
-CHUKCHI SEA-
PKZ245-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
PKZ240-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
PKZ235-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
PKZ230-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-

THE CHUKCHI SEA ICE EDGE LIES FROM NEAR POINT FRANKLIN TO 70.7N 161W
TO 71.1N 165.1W TO 71.7N 167W TO 71.3N 173.9W TO 69.2N 177.8W TO THE
RUSSIAN COAST NEAR 68.3N 177.6W. THE ICE EDGE IS OPEN WATER WITH
HIGHER CONCENTRATIONS OF ICE 5 TO 25 NM FROM THE EDGE. 

THE BEAUFORT SEA ICE EDGE IS AT KAKTOVIK WITH OPEN WATER IN CAMDEN
BAY. WEST OF CAMDEN BAY AND OUTSIDE OF SHALLOW WATERS THE ICE IS 5 TO
25 NM OF 1 TO 3 TENTHS YOUNG...NEW AND MULTI YEAR ICE. 

FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ICE IN THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHWEST 7 TO 10 NM EACH DAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN MOVE MAINLY
WITH THE CURRENTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NET ICE MOVEMENT WILL BE TO
THE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 NM THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEA ICE ALONG THE ALASKA
NORTH COAST WILL INCREASE IN CONCENTRATION THROUGH MONDAY WITH
NORTHEAST FLOW. ICE WILL AGAIN TO DIMINISH ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THE ICE EDGE WILL MOVE TO WEST OF CAMDEN BAY BY
WEDNESDAY. 

KCOLE 2013 

$$


Next, Canada Ice Service - first, the big picture then a ten day animated chart then a detailed chart:




and Bemen University Polar View



Its all in the details... scientists and mariners have different needs... since mariners lives are on the line - lets put their needs for safe navigation at the top of the list.

The best graphic in my opinion is a detailed scale weekly animated ice chart - you would learn the trend along with actual data. In this age of computers it seems like an easy task - who will be progressive to try it - Canada Ice Service?  I HOPE SO! 

Bemen, your calibration is to far out of touch you must be desperate for funding dollars.... why not fix it with a few feet on the ground?

National Weather Service - ho hum.... same state of disrepair on a brighter note I do like the kmz file - nice touch! Check it out here: http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/data/ice/shapefiles/latestIceMap.kmz

Of course you cannot count on the NOAA NWS... they promise high resolution... (caveat: only on M-F during business hours)

Satellite Ice Imagery
This page is used to post satellite images of sea ice. Resolution of the images ranges from 250 meters to 4 kilometers. Sources for the imagery include NASA MODISSNPP from GINA at UAF and NOAA POES AVHRRfrom NWS Alaska Region. Images are added to this page as cloud cover and time permit.
No ice images found.

Sorry - closed on weekends....








2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Take a look at the archived webcam pictures from the bridge of cruiseship Bremen. It has just travelled along the entire north coast. Not much ice to be seen:

http://www.hl-cruises.com/ships/ms-bremen/webcam/

Best regards
Stig Oye

Captain on GREY GOOSE said...

Thanks for re-confirming the miss-information provided by the Agencies... they need more feet on the ground rather than 'mouse-clickers' in the office... lol

You just cannot trust anyone today... "Always trust your cape".

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