Monday, August 26, 2013

My Arctic Forecast : Doubling Of Arctic Ice In 2013

My Arctic Forecast : Doubling Of Arctic Ice In 2013

Arctic ice melt has dropped to almost zero. Comparing current ice vs. mid-September 2012, there is more than 100% more ice than at last year’s minimum. A rapid freeze between now and mid-September could make this number much larger.
The map below compares current ice (green and yellow) vs. mid-September 2012 (red and yellow)
ScreenHunter_419 Aug. 26 10.15
In their ongoing efforts at plausibly deniable polar ice propaganda, NSIDC describes this spectacular doubling as “won’t match last year’s melt
Leading experts say that all of the ice is going to melt in the next few hours.
the Arctic will be ice-free in the summer of 2013
- John Kerry, US Secretary of State
ScreenHunter_409 Jan. 18 21.32
James Hansen : ‘This is the last chance’
“We see a tipping point occurring right before our eyes,” Hansen told the AP before the luncheon. “The Arctic is the first tipping point and it’s occurring exactly the way we said it would.”
Hansen, echoing work by other scientists, said that in five to 10 years, the Arctic will be free of sea ice in the summer.
June 26, 2013
The alarming loss of sea ice which has grown worse each summer over the past several decades, has taken a sharp turn for the worse: this year the loss is right in the middle, the most resilient part of the ice cover. This could lead to a completely ice-free Arctic Ocean by September.
ScreenHunter_165 Jul. 17 11.51


Anonymous said...

Here are some info about the "Steven Goddard":

Voyage Adviser said...

I'd rather be saying it is going to double than it is going to be cut-in half. My glass is half-full, not half-empty.

Lets wait a few weeks and see which way it turns out.

What do you say anonymous?

Anonymous said...

Agreed captain! It looks really like a cold summer with more ice than last year but we have to wait some more years before we can say 2013 was a special season or just a little bit colder than in other years!

Anonymous said...

You have to admit that this is a big rebound from last year. Isn't the big question about the western exit staying open for the west bound boats, or will an icebreaker help them at that point?

Voyage Adviser said...

Any vessel requesting assistance from a Coast Guard icebreaker will likely receive it - IF THERE IS ONE IN THE AREA. Exiting through the western Arctic could be problematic - just yesterday we witnessed the Beaufort Gyre and winds pushing sea ice towards shore and setting up a choke-point blockage. The biggest problem I see is the unavailability of a "heavy" icebreaker. A "medium" icebreaker MIGHT be in the region and is able to break 4.5' seaice continuous at 3kts - hopefully enough to transit the desired route. Next you have to wonder if the yachts could even follow with broken ice as large as a meter hitting into their hulls... it would only be a matter of time. Check out this video of the S/V FINE TOLERANCE being towed during Arctic icebreaker ops.


Anonymous said...

Experience says you cannot follow an icebreaker in a yacht or small boat. There is no cover on the exposed northern shore of Alaska. At this point, prepare to over-winter in the finest port of your choice if you have come through Bellot Strait from the east. No one ever said that transiting the Arctic in one season was any kind of new norm and we all know it...

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