When is an environmental event likely to occur? By looking at history you can make a guesstimate. By monitoring current variables and plotting them against the same historical variables you can make an educated prediction.
When will the sea ice melt?
When will the sea ice freeze?
It all depends on the variables... WHERE? Is a good starter. If you can answer the variable data questions you can make an informed decision.
BREAK-UP OF SEA ICE - (click on image for a larger size graphic)
FREEZE-UP OF SEA ICE - (click on image for a larger size graphic)
LOOK AT CURRENT TRENDING DATA - 30 DAY ANIMATED SEA TEMPERATURES
WHERE DO YOU WANT TO BE ON WHAT DATE?
NOW YOU CAN MAKE THE CALL BASED ON BEST AVAILABLE INFORMATION... REVISE AS YOUR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE IT NECESSARY... RATHER THAN JUST ROLLING THE DICE.
A SECOND OPINION WITH ANIMATED DATA IS AVAILABLE HERE: http://www.moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/sst-regional-movies-as-described-here-i.html?WxK=31
Previously I prepared a simple voyage plan with specific locations and dates - lets see what we can learn.
Time enroute 30 days
NOTE: LOST WEATHER DAYS MUST BE ADDED. HOW MANY DAYS DEPENDS ON YOUR VESSEL, CREW AND ABILITY TO GO TO WEATHER.
Looking at the FREEZE-UP OF SEA ICE above I do not see a historical problem with the dates except near Wainwright-Barrow-Pt. Barrow. - Turning the corner is the most likely choke-point. You harbor of refuge is to the east of Point Barrow in Elson lagoon (71.3113567N, -156.3230896W) - not a great place to wait but you will have fair sea and ice protection in open water and important VHF communications to Barrow about 9 miles to the SW. (Taxi transportation is possible from shore.)
WHAT CAN CHANGE THIS ANALYSIS QUICKLY IS THE WEATHER... HERE ARE THE LINKS I'D BE WATCHING DAILY.
and which way is the ice (near Point Barrow) drifting? Look here: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicespddrf_nowcast_anim30d.gif