Making better decisions - show me the historic data v today's data - DECISION TIME

Be patient while the files load... then they will be ready to expand when clicked.

When is an environmental event likely to occur? By looking at history you can make a guesstimate. By monitoring current variables and plotting them against the same historical variables you can make an educated prediction.

When will the sea ice melt?
When will the sea ice freeze?

It all depends on the variables... WHERE? Is a good starter. If you can answer the variable data questions you can make an informed decision.

BREAK-UP OF SEA ICE - (click on image for a larger size graphic)

 FREEZE-UP OF SEA ICE - (click on image for a larger size graphic)

LOOK AT CURRENT TRENDING DATA - 30 DAY ANIMATED SEA TEMPERATURES



WHERE DO YOU WANT TO BE ON WHAT DATE?
PLAUSIBLE?
NOW YOU CAN MAKE THE CALL BASED ON BEST AVAILABLE INFORMATION... REVISE AS YOUR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE IT NECESSARY... RATHER THAN JUST ROLLING THE DICE.

A SECOND OPINION WITH ANIMATED DATA IS AVAILABLE HERE: http://www.moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/sst-regional-movies-as-described-here-i.html?WxK=31


Previously I prepared a simple voyage plan with specific locations and dates - lets see what we can learn.

Depart Bellot Strait 20130827 ETA Gjoa Haven 20130829

Depart Gjoa Haven 20130830 ETA Cambridge Bay 20130901

Depart Cambridge Bay 20130902 ETA Tuktoy 20130908

Depart Tuktoy 20130909 ETA Hershel Island 20130910

Depart Herschel Island 20130911 ETA Point Barrow 20130914

Depart Point Barrow 20130914 ETA Nome 20130919

Depart Nome 20130921 ETA Sand Point 20130927
Time enroute 30 days
NOTE: LOST WEATHER DAYS MUST BE ADDED. HOW MANY DAYS DEPENDS ON YOUR VESSEL, CREW AND ABILITY TO GO TO WEATHER.

Looking at the FREEZE-UP OF SEA ICE above I do not see a historical problem with the dates except near Wainwright-Barrow-Pt. Barrow. - Turning the corner is the most likely choke-point. You harbor of refuge is to the east of Point Barrow in Elson lagoon (71.3113567N, -156.3230896W) - not a great place to wait but you will have fair sea and ice protection in open water and important VHF communications to Barrow about 9 miles to the SW. (Taxi transportation is possible from shore.)

WHAT CAN CHANGE THIS ANALYSIS QUICKLY IS THE WEATHER... HERE ARE THE LINKS I'D BE WATCHING DAILY.

http://arctic.arh.noaa.gov/opc_sfc_anal_latest.php
and
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/marine/alaskabrief.shtml
and
http://arctic.arh.noaa.gov/index.php

and which way is the ice (near Point Barrow) drifting?  Look here: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicespddrf_nowcast_anim30d.gif