Navy Forecasting Little Ice Loss Over The Next Week - WESTERN ARCTIC ICE MELT SEASON A MONTH LATE IN 2013

Navy Forecasting Little Ice Loss Over The Next Week

Posted on August 2, 2013by stevengoddard

1/12° Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System (ACFNS) Archive

By mid-August, almost all the melt is from underneath. But there is very little warm water this year, except for in the Chukchi Sea.

What alarmists didn’t want to think about was that last year’s August storm pulled a lot of heat out of the water, and this year is payback time for their gloating last year.

SO HERE IT IS AUGUST 2ND AND MOST OF THE FORECASTS ARE OFF - MELT SEASON RUNNING LATER THAN EVER IN THE LAST TEN YEARS.

http://iceweb1.cis.ec.gc.ca/Prod20/page3.xhtml

Western Arctic - FECN14CWIS - 2013-07-17 00:00:00 UTC

My account

THIRTY DAY ICE OUTLOOK FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARCTIC FOR MID-JULY 
TO MID-AUGUST ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA ON 17 JULY 2013.
THE NEXT 30 DAY OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON 2 AUGUST 2013.

Summary for July 1 to 15.
Average air temperatures were near to slightly below normal values over 
most locations except above normal near Sachs Harbour and Point Barrow. 
Ice melt was 1 week earlier than normal over most locations except 1 to 2 
weeks later than normal over the Beaufort Sea, the Arctic Ocean and in 
Amundsen Gulf. 

Weather forecast for July 16 to August 15.
Average air temperatures will be above normal values over most locations 
except near normal over the Beaufort Sea and the Arctic Ocean.

Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula.
July 16 to 31.
Very open to open drift first-year ice except for an area of very close 
pack ice about 15 miles north of McKinley Bay and Cape Bathurst. Open 
water persisting in Mackenzie Bay.

August 1 to 15.
Ice melting completely during the first week of August. Open water 
persisting in Mackenzie Bay.

Mackenzie Bay to Cape Bathurst.
July 16 to 31.
Very open to open drift first-year ice except for an area of very close 
pack ice about 15 miles north of McKinley Bay and Cape Bathurst. Open 
water persisting in Mackenzie Bay.

August 1 to 15.
Ice melting completely during the first week of August. Open water 
persisting in Mackenzie Bay.

Beaufort Sea south of 75°N.
July 16 to 31.
An area of very open to open drift first-year ice with a trace of old ice 
within 20 to 30 miles of the shore north of Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula and 
west of Banks Island increasing to 50 to 60 miles of the shore from 
Mackenzie Bay westward. Farther offshore very close pack first-year ice 
with a trace of old ice with some intrusion of ice at about 10 miles 
north of Point Barrow and about 15 miles north of McKinley Bay and Cape 
Bathurst. Very close pack old and first-year ice lying about 80 miles 
north of the shore east of 141°W. Very close pack first-year ice with 2 
tenths of old ice lying about 120 miles north of the shore west of 141°W. 

August 1 to 15.
Ice melting completely within 70 miles of the mainland coast and west of 
Banks Island during the first week of August then open water. During the 
second week of August, close pack old and first-year ice persisting 
beyond 70 miles of the mainland coast and west of Banks Island east of 
142°W, while very open to open drift first-year ice with up to 2 tenths 
of old ice remaining west of 142°W.

Arctic Ocean north of 75°N.
July 16 to 31.
East of 144°W very close pack old and first-year ice. West of 144°W very 
close pack first-year ice with 2 tenths of old ice.

August 1 to 15.
East of 145°W very close pack old and first-year ice. West of 145°W very 
close pack first-year ice with 2 tenths of old ice becoming very open to 
open drift ice during the second week of August.

Cape Lisburne to Point Barrow.
July 16 to 31.
South of Wainwright open water. North of Wainwright very open drift
first-year ice melting completely near the end of July.

August 1 to 15.
Open water. 

Amundsen Gulf.
July 16 to 31.
Close to very close pack first-year ice except for very open drift ice
over the northwestern section. Ice becoming open drift ice during the
last week of July.

August 1 to 15.
Very open to open drift first-year ice melting completely during the
second week of August.

Coronation Gulf.
July 16 to 31.
Over the western section open water. Over the eastern section very open 
drift first-year ice melting completely during the last week of July.

August 1 to 15.
Open water.

Queen Maud Gulf.
July 16 to 31.
Close to very close pack first-year ice becoming open drift to close pack
ice during the last week of July.

August 1 to 15.
Very open to open drift first-year ice melting completely during the
second week of August.

Victoria Strait.
July 16 to 31.
Consolidated first-year ice over the northern section fracturing during 
the third week of July. Elsewhere very close pack first-year ice.

August 1 to 15.
Open drift to close pack first-year ice becoming very open to open drift 
ice during the second week of August.

Larsen Sound.
July 16 to 31.
Consolidated first-year ice fracturing during the third week of July then 
very close pack ice.

August 1 to 15.
Close to very close pack first-year ice.

Peel Sound.
July 16 to 31.
Consolidated first-year ice fracturing during the last week of July.

August 1 to 15.
Close to very close pack first-year ice becoming open drift to close pack
ice during the second week of August.

M'Clintock Channel.
July 16 to 31.
Consolidated first-year ice fracturing during the last week of July. An 
area of 4 tenths of old ice embedded in the pack ice over the 
northwestern section.

August 1 to 15.
Close to very close pack first-year ice. An area of 4 tenths of old ice 
embedded in the pack ice over the northwestern section.

Viscount Melville Sound.
July 16 to 31.
Over the eastern section consolidated old and first-year ice. Over the
western section consolidated first-year ice with 1 tenth of old ice. Ice
fracturing during the last week of July.

August 1 to 15.
Over the eastern section close to very close pack old and first-year ice.
Over the western section close to very close pack first-year ice with 1
tenth of old ice. 

M'Clure Strait.
July 16 to 31.
Close to very close pack first-year ice with 2 tenths of old ice over the
western third of M'Clure Strait becoming open drift to close pack ice
during the last week of July. Elsewhere consolidated first-year ice with
2 tenths of old ice fracturing during the last week of July.

August 1 to 15.
Open drift to close pack first-year ice with 2 tenths of old ice becoming
very open to open drift ice during the second week of August.

END 

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