Wednesday, September 4, 2013

Fat Lady given 15 minute call out notice - COUNTING DOWN TO SEASONAL TIPPING POINTS

http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/09/04/melt-season-almost-over/


Melt Season Almost Over

Posted on September 4, 2013by 
Green shows ice gain over the last two days. Red shows ice loss.
ScreenHunter_179 Sep. 04 04.34

THE LOWS ARE COMING... BATTEN DOWN THE HATCHES... PREPARE FOR STORM WEATHER.


Storm Warning Flags
penantpenant
penant		flagflag
flag
Small Craft Warning
21-38 mph
(18-33 kts)		Gale Warning
39-54 mph
(34-47 kts)		Storm Warning
55-73 mph
(48-63 kts)		Hurricane Warning
74+ mph
(64+ kts)
Beaufort Scale
FORCE
DESC
MPH
EFFECTS
0
Calm
0-1
Land- Smoke rises vertically
Water- Like a mirror
1
Light Air
1-3
L- Rising smoke drifts
W- Small ripples
2
Light
Breeze
4-7
L- Leaves rustle
W- Small wavelets, wind fills sail
3
Gentle Breeze
8-12
L- Light flags extend
W- Large wavelets, sailboats heel
4
Moderate Breeze
13-18
L- Moves thin branches
W- Working breeze, saiboats at hull speed
5
Fresh Breeze
19-24
L- Small trees sway
W- Numerous whitecaps, time to shorten sails
6
Strong Breeze
25-31
L- Large tree branches move
W- Whitecaps everywhere, sailboats head ashore, large waves
7
Moderate Gale
32-38
L- Large trees begin to sway
W- Much bigger waves, some foam, sailboats at harbor
8
Fresh
Gale
39-46
L- Small branches are broken from trees
W- Foam in well marked streaks, larger waves, edges of crests break off
9
Strong
Gale
47-54
L- Slight damage occurs to buildings
W- High waves, dense spray, visibility affected
10
Whole
Gale
55-63
L- Large trees uprooted, considerable building damage
W- Very high waves, heavy sea roll, surface white with spray and foam, visibility impaired
11
Storm
64-74
L- Extensive widespread damage
W- Exceptionally high waves, small to medium ships obscured, visibility poor
12
Hurricane
74+
L- Extreme destruction
W- Waves 40+', air filled with foam and spray, visibility restricted
FORECAST VALID...SATURDAY 7 SEPTEMBER 2013 ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...MODERATE. 
SYNOPSIS...A LARGE STRONG LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE OVER THE ALASKAN WEST COAST LATE TUESDAY THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL SHIFT NORTH OVER INTERIOR ALASKA ON SATURDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI AND BEAUFORT SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY. 

FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY...CHUKCHI SEA...EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO STRONG THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND START TO DECREASE IN STRENGTH. THE STRONG WINDS WILL AID IN BREAKING APART HIGHER CONCENTRATION AREAS OF ICE REMAINING NEAR THE SOUTHERN ICE EDGE. THE NET ICE EDGE MOVEMENT WILL BE 20 TO 30 NM TO THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY... WITH HIGHER CONCENTRATION AREAS OF ICE SPREADING OUT INTO AREAS CURRENTLY OCCUPIED BY 1 TO 3 TENTHS OF ICE COVER AND OPEN WATER AREAS. 

FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEAUFORT SEA...EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA ICE EDGE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE OVERALL NET ICE EDGE MOVEMENT WILL BE MINIMAL... HOWEVER THE HIGHER CONCENTRATION ICE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A NET SHIFT OF 20 TO 30 NM TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY.
Canada Ice Forecasts

Foxe Basin

Very close pack first-year ice.
Outlook for June…Becoming close to very close pack ice after mid-month.
Outlook for July…Close to very close pack ice except open drift or less ice over the southeastern section after mid-month.
Outlook for August…Close to very close pack ice except open drift or less ice over the eastern and northern sections during the third week.
Outlook for September…Ice melting completely during the third week then open water.

Arctic EventsEarliest Date (1968-2012)Latest Date (1968-2012)Median (1981-2010)Outlook
Foxe Basin AreaOpen water1 Sep6 Oct20 Sep20-22Sep

Pond Inlet

Consolidated first-year ice.
Outlook for July…Ice fracturing during the third week then very close pack ice.
Outlook for August…Becoming open drift or less ice early in the month. Ice melting completely during the first week then bergy water.
Outlook for September…Bergy water.

Admiralty Inlet Northern

Consolidated first-year ice.
Outlook for July…Ice fracturing near mid-month. Ice melting completely at the end of the month.
Outlook for August…Bergy water.

Lancaster Sound

Very open to open drift first-year ice. Trace of old ice over the eastern section.
Outlook for July…Open drift or less ice.
Outlook for August…Ice melting completely during the second week then bergy water.
Outlook for September…Bergy water.

Prince Regent Inlet

Consolidated first-year ice.
Outlook for July…Ice fracturing early in the month then close to very close pack ice.
Outlook for August…Becoming open drift or less ice early in the month. Ice melting completely after mid-month then bergy water.
Outlook for September…Bergy water.

Arctic EventsEarliest Date (1968-2012)Latest Date (1968-2012)Median (1981-2010)Outlook
Pond Inlet AreaFracture10 July19 Aug23 July19-21 July
Bergy water25 July12 Sep8 Aug6-8 Aug
Admiralty Inlet - Northern AreaFracture29 June7 Aug21 July14-16 July
Bergy water17 July12 Sep6 Aug29-31 July
Lancaster Sound AreaFracture12 June3 Aug6 JulyAlready fractured

Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula

Consolidated first-year ice.
Outlook for July…Ice fracturing early in the month then open drift or less ice during the first week. Ice melting completely during the second week then open water.
Outlook for August…Ice free.

Mackenzie Bay to Cape Bathurst

Consolidated first-year ice.
Outlook for June…Consolidated ice. Ice melting completely in Mackenzie Bay after mid-month.  Ice fracturing north of Mackenzie Bay during the last week then melting completely at the end of the month.
Outlook for July…Ice fracturing east of Mackenzie Bay early in the month then open drift or less during the first week. Ice melting completely during the second week then open water.
Outlook for August…Ice free.

Cape Lisburne to Point Barrow

Very close pack first-year ice.
Outlook for July…Close to very close pack ice becoming open drift or less ice during the third week.
Outlook for August…Ice melting completely early in the month then open water.
Outlook for September…Ice free.

Amundsen Gulf

Consolidated first-year ice.
Outlook for July…Ice fracturing early in the month then very close pack ice. Becoming open drift or less ice during the last week.
Outlook for August…Ice melting completely during the second week then open water.
Outlook for September…Ice free.

Larsen Sound

Consolidated first-year ice.
Outlook for July…Ice fracturing during the fourth week.
Outlook for August…Close to very close pack ice becoming open drift or less ice during the third week.
Outlook for September…Ice melting completely during the second week then open water.

Peel Sound

Consolidated first-year ice.
Outlook for July…Ice fracturing during the fourth week.
Outlook for August…Close to very close pack ice becoming open drift or less ice during the second week.
Outlook for September…Ice melting completely during the first week then open water.

M’Clure Strait

Consolidated first-year ice with areas of 2 tenths of old ice.
Outlook for July…Ice fracturing over the western section during the first week and over the eastern section the third week.
Outlook for August…Becoming open drift or less ice during the first week.
Outlook for September…Open drift or less ice.

Arctic EventsEarliest Date (1968-2012)Latest Date (1968-2012)Median (1981-2010)Outlook
Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula AreaFracture18 June17 July1 July30 June-2 July
Mackenzie Bay to Cape Bathurst RouteOpen water18 June27 Sep26 July21-23 July
Mackenzie Bay to Prudhoe Bay RouteOpen drift or less4 July20 Sep13 Aug19-21 July
Prudhoe Bay to Point Barrow RouteOpen drift or less11 July8 Sep13 Aug29-31 July
Close pack (refreeze)N/AN/A8 Oct9-11 Oct
Cape Lisburne to Point Barrow RouteOpen drift or less10 June8 Sep6 Aug18-20 July
http://www.ec.gc.ca/glaces-ice/9CD04FB5-11DE-4DD3-A08D-9EF66DA43518/20130603_otlkare_summer2013.pdf

Where and when do you think it is going to freeze-up? (click graphic for larger size image)
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