UPDATE 20130712 0930 HOURS
CHARLES IS IN RECEIPT OF THE FOLLOWING ADVISE FROM SEAROUT:
"The coast between Point Hope and a little beyond Cape Lisburne, offers little shelter, including the passage of Cape Lisburne. The coast is dotted with rocks, mountains plunge into the sea, sometimes steep cliffs , home to hundreds of birds. Certainly beautiful, it is recommended to switch off the wind up hitting the slopes at high speed and the gorges of the rugged terrain. Charles I recommend staying at a dozen miles offshore. "
WHAT WOULD YOU ADVISE GIVEN THE FOLLOWING WEATHER AND SEA CONDITIONS:
Synopsis...A 1030 MB HIGH NORTH OF BARROW WILL DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN TO 1024 MB NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY 4PM SAT. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST TOWARD BANKS ISLAND THROUGH TUE. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA SUN NIGHT AND MON. Today: E winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
Tonight: S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
Sat: S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
Sat Night: SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun: SE winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
ONCE AGAIN SEAROUT IS PROVIDING EXTREMELY POOR ADVICE IN MY OPINION.
CHARLES HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO DEMONSTRATE HIS ABILITY TO MAKE GOALS ON TIME. YOU MUST TAKE THIS EVENT AS A GIANT VARIABLE. TO ADVISE HIM TO NAVIGATE 12 MILES OFFSHORE MEANS SEVERAL THINGS:
1) IN THE EVENT OF AN EMERGENCY THE RESPONSE TIME WILL BE LONGER - SUCCESSFUL RESPONSES TO EMERGENCIES ARE CLOSELY RELATED TO SHORT RESPONSE TIMES. JUST ASK THE FIRE DEPARTMENT WHO HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE? CASES INVOLVING THE SHORTEST RESPONSE TIMES.
2) IF CHARLES DOES NOT MAKE GOAL AS HE SAYS HE WILL BEING OFFSHORE AND SUBJECT TO THE PERILS OF THE APPROACHING STORM MAY BE LIFE THREATENING. DO NOT PLACE YOURSELF IN SITUATIONS OF RISK UNNECESSARILY. EVALUATE THE RISK V BENEFITS.
3) ROWING ICE DOES NOT USE A GPS TRACKING BEACON - ONLY FROM CHARLES DOES ANYONE KNOW WHERE HE IS... THIS IS A MAJOR OVERSIGHT. IF CHARLES MAKES A MISTAKE, LOSES HIS ELECTRONICS, HIS POSITION BECOMES A GUESS. FOR ONLY US$200 HIS POSITION COULD BE ACCURATELY KNOWN 24X7 WITH EMERGENCY MESSAGING. I SEE THIS INTENTIONAL DISREGARD AS A MAJOR FLAW.
3) ROWING ICE DOES NOT USE A GPS TRACKING BEACON - ONLY FROM CHARLES DOES ANYONE KNOW WHERE HE IS... THIS IS A MAJOR OVERSIGHT. IF CHARLES MAKES A MISTAKE, LOSES HIS ELECTRONICS, HIS POSITION BECOMES A GUESS. FOR ONLY US$200 HIS POSITION COULD BE ACCURATELY KNOWN 24X7 WITH EMERGENCY MESSAGING. I SEE THIS INTENTIONAL DISREGARD AS A MAJOR FLAW.
4) WHILE CLOSE TO SHORE NAVIGATION IN THE AREA CAN BE DANGEROUS. REMEMBER A ROWBOAT IS ABLE TO LAND ON A BEACH OR TAKE SHALLOW WATER EVASIVE ACTIONS UNLIKE A DEEP DRAFT VESSEL. RECOMMENDING HE MOVE TO 12 MILES OFFSHORE IS WAY TOO FAR - IT WILL REQUIRE ADDITIONAL TIME TO ROW OUT 12 MILES AND TO ROW BACK TOWARDS SHORE 12 MILES - I BELIEVE A MILE OR TWO IS A SAFE DISTANCE. REMEMBER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WINDS AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER MOVE COUNTER-CLOCKWISE IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. CHARLES WILL KNOW FROM THE WIND SHIFT WHEN THE LOW PRESSURE IS APPROACHING HIS LOCATION - SUNDAY AFTERNOON - IF HE PLANS WELL HE CAN USE THIS FACT FOR THE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH QUADRANT TO HELP PUSH HIM FURTHER NORTHEAST.
WHAT DO YOU THINK? COMMENTS WELCOME BELOW.
I don't think Charles Hedrich has a chance of human powering ROWING ICE when the Arctic ice melts to reach his Atlantic Ocean Arctic Circle goal before the sea freezes in 2013.
2) He says he will be stopping at native villages to re-provision. Unless he has made advance arrangements he cannot expect foods to be surplus for a Frenchman. Barrow? Cambridge Bay? Sure, but not small hamlets. Unbelievable expectations - boy is he that naive?
3) The weather forecasting services of SEAROUT have not been stellar - Charles would be much better off to use the National Weather Services ftp email service (Atlantic)(Pacific)(Alaska)(Alaska Coastal). As simple as sending an e-mail requesting specific weather for a region or specific forecast file and those details are returned by e-mail in about 6 minutes. Near real time weather with accurate forecasts for 3-5 days. Charles would have the information when he required to make the best decisions.
4) There are up to five avatars named "Charles Hedrich" posting on everything from his blog, Facebook, and to his website with content, dates, news articles which are not from Charles... this is known as too many cooks in the kitchen - which results in the food being burned.... ouch! I suspect Charles's sons and wife are using his access codes and pretending to be him to further his "earning a living" adventure exploits. In the name of M-O-N-E-Y for his family.
Here is why:
1) He departed Wales Alaska on July 1st and took 9 days to only rowed 200 miles to Kivalina. The Speed Over Ground (SOG) was about 1 mph so a 3,500 mile NW Passage requires 3,500 hours or about 146 days of non-stop rowing. Just not going to happen. Can he row faster? Only time and Charles knows for sure. But I'd bet adverse weather and sea ice are going to stop his progress on many occasions.
1) He departed Wales Alaska on July 1st and took 9 days to only rowed 200 miles to Kivalina. The Speed Over Ground (SOG) was about 1 mph so a 3,500 mile NW Passage requires 3,500 hours or about 146 days of non-stop rowing. Just not going to happen. Can he row faster? Only time and Charles knows for sure. But I'd bet adverse weather and sea ice are going to stop his progress on many occasions.
2) He says he will be stopping at native villages to re-provision. Unless he has made advance arrangements he cannot expect foods to be surplus for a Frenchman. Barrow? Cambridge Bay? Sure, but not small hamlets. Unbelievable expectations - boy is he that naive?
3) The weather forecasting services of SEAROUT have not been stellar - Charles would be much better off to use the National Weather Services ftp email service (Atlantic)(Pacific)(Alaska)(Alaska Coastal). As simple as sending an e-mail requesting specific weather for a region or specific forecast file and those details are returned by e-mail in about 6 minutes. Near real time weather with accurate forecasts for 3-5 days. Charles would have the information when he required to make the best decisions.
4) There are up to five avatars named "Charles Hedrich" posting on everything from his blog, Facebook, and to his website with content, dates, news articles which are not from Charles... this is known as too many cooks in the kitchen - which results in the food being burned.... ouch! I suspect Charles's sons and wife are using his access codes and pretending to be him to further his "earning a living" adventure exploits. In the name of M-O-N-E-Y for his family.
5) No GPS tracking beacon is crazy... real time internet posted position updates. Satellite phones are great but with the push of a button he would also have 9-1-1 emergency assistance. Try dialing the phone in a medical emergency. You would think he would be wise enough to use this good technology.
And the list goes on... but lets K.I.S.S.
Nothing to do with all of the Media grandstanding articles nor finding time to chat with interviewers over satellite radio... ROWING ROWING ROWING is not his primary endeavor... after all - he has to make a living from his sport adventures.... lol
So there you have it... one high-energy Frenchman hoping he can pull off a miracle in his 55th year of challenging Mother Nature on planet Earth... My advice would be to aim for Cambridge Bay in 2013, winter over ROWING ICE then start rowing again in 2014 to Pond Inlet then winter over once again at Pond Inlet and start rowing again in 2015 to the Davis Strait's Arctic Circle. GOAL!!! He would become the first person to row the complete 3,500 mile Northwest Passage. No one says you have to do it in one short 100 day minimum ice season.
That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
I hope Charles listens to the advice - I know he will when Mother Nature "talks" to him. But will he pay attention? He will else learn a very hard lesson.
You cannot fool Mother Nature!
So there you have it... one high-energy Frenchman hoping he can pull off a miracle in his 55th year of challenging Mother Nature on planet Earth... My advice would be to aim for Cambridge Bay in 2013, winter over ROWING ICE then start rowing again in 2014 to Pond Inlet then winter over once again at Pond Inlet and start rowing again in 2015 to the Davis Strait's Arctic Circle. GOAL!!! He would become the first person to row the complete 3,500 mile Northwest Passage. No one says you have to do it in one short 100 day minimum ice season.
That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
I hope Charles listens to the advice - I know he will when Mother Nature "talks" to him. But will he pay attention? He will else learn a very hard lesson.
You cannot fool Mother Nature!
Where is ROWING ICE TODAY? Checking his blog you can only estimate a position between 68° 03N 166° 59W and Point Hope. Keeping his exact position dark is a guarded secret... for security purposes?
Checking his blog I find the following strange Nelson comments and weather:
- - - snip - - -
"Capricious weather Chukchi Sea ...
When I arrived just before the height of Point Hope, Charles saw the wind strengthened very significantly 30noeuds 25-SE sector, raising a sea surf. He saw his speed grow at 2.5noeuds push by wind and current.
Nelson on site confirms this gale.
Depression quickly formed Chukchi Sea, SW of Point Hope. Charles, between depression and the coast could only see the rise of the wind. The lull is announced for the next 5-6 hours with moving it to the West. "
Today 11/07
Wind sector S-4 8noeuds, orienting NNE 5-6noeuds
NE swell 0.7 a .5 meters
Current S 0.6noeuds
Pressure 1019hpa
- - - snip - - -
Checking the National Weather Service reveals the following:
Synopsis...A 1034 MB HIGH NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM KOTZEBUE SOUND EAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF 1012 MB OVER THE EASTERN CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WILL MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT THU EVENING AND THEN DISSIPATE. A SECOND LOW OF 1001 MB WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA TO THE GULF OF ANADYR SUN.
Tonight: W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
Fri: N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
Fri Night: N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
Sat: N winds 5 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
Sat Night: SE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun: SE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun Night: S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon: S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Tue: S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Tonight: E winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
Fri: N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
Fri Night: NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
Sat: E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
Sat Night: E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun: SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun Night: S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon: S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Tue: S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Fri: N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
Fri Night: NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fog.
Sat: E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
Sat Night: E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun: SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sun Night: S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon: S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Tue: S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Nelson, there is no GALE in this region... undoubtedly there are major challenges of which communications are epic with this expedition....
Enough of the hype... Charles and Nelson Hedrich have a great adventure.
