Saturday, February 16, 2013

Arctic Ice GAIN sets new record - adjust NWP schedule?

Sea Ice News: Volume 4 #1 – Arctic Ice gain sets a new record

From the Nature abhors a vacuum department comes this note from RealScience showing that Arctic sea ice has made a stunning rebound since the record low recorded in the late summer of 2012.
With a few weeks of growth still to occur, the Arctic has blown away the previous record for ice gain this winter. This is only the third winter in history when more than 10 million km² of new ice has formed.
ScreenHunter_175 Feb. 12 10.35
Of course, this is only a record for the satellite era data back to about 1980, and just like the much ballyhooed record low of 2012, we have no hard data to tell us if this has happened before or not.
Here’s the current Cryosphere Today plot, note the steep rebound right after the summer minimum, something also noted in Sea Ice News Volume 3 Number 14 – Arctic refreeze fastest ever:
seaice.recent.arctic[1]Source: Cryosphere Today – Arctic Climate Research at the University of Illinois
The Arctic ocean is well filled with ice right now:
Source: Cryosphere Today – Arctic Climate Research at the University of Illinois
In other news, the Antarctic seems to be continuing on its slow and steady rise, and is now approaching 450 days of uninterrupted above normal ice area according to this…which shows the last time the Antarctic sea ice was below normal was 2011.8932 or 11/22/2011.
This continued growth of ice in the
Arctic Antarctic make the arguments for ice mass loss in Antarctica rather hard to believe, something also backed up by ICESAT data.
As always, you can see all the sea ice data at the WUWT Sea Ice Reference Page.
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Yes the trend is clear. Just like it was in 1906

You probably believe that the Holocaust never happened, because newspaper articles can’t be trusted.

Dr. Richard Carlson was a leading Arctic expert of his day. He must have been lying about all that warming and melt, eh?

The newspaper reports are overwhelming and went on for three decades. No doubt a conspiracy of future global warming deniers.

Apparently Carlson didn’t use the Internet much in the 1940s.
The whole thing is a conspiracy. Skeptics traveled back in time and altered the newspaper records to make it look like there was a meltdown occurring. And GISS did the same thing with their temperature records.
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Hey! If you are into melting ice, and it appears you are, Steven has kindly supplied an entire section on it.
Bon appetite!

None of the satellite data from 1940 contradicts the Russian’s claims.
My experience is that scientists now are far more likely to be dishonest than newspapers were 50 years ago.

You must have missed Obama’s science adviser John Holdren, when he said that ice-free winters follow shortly after ice-free summers.
Where did you get the idea that science meant focusing on only one statistic, and that looking at any other data is prohibited?

Ice extent today is almost identical to the same day in 1994.

1979 is a wonderful year for alarmists to start Arctic ice records, since it was the coldest winter in history.


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Arctic now; Winter Storm Watch ahead; Snowiest month in 2 years

Mini Ice Age
This is quickly turning into the "winter of our discontent" for some Minnesotans.
Yes, it's a real winter this year.
As thermometers plummet again we endure yet another day of sub-zero wind chills this month. The busy weather week will peak Friday, with yet another round of "plowable" snow for much of Minnesota.
In this edition of Updraft we look at how February is turning into a mini "ice age" and track the next winter storm(s) heading our way.
A "normal" winter?
What a concept.
Sun dog.jpg
Sun Dogs in Mankato this morning
Image: Matt Lutz
14 of 19 days so far this month with snowfall at MSP Airport
10.9" February snowfall total so far at MSP
February 2011 last month we tallied more snow at MSP (16.1")
31.3" season snowfall total so far at MSP
+15.6" vs. last winter
66 mph wind gusts at Grand Marais harbor at 6:56am this morning!
DLH: GRAND MARAIS,MN (GNA) ASOS reports gust of 57.0 knots from NNW @ 1256
Winter Storm Watches posted for southern Minnesota including the metro Thursday night & Friday
So This is Winter:
Just when you thought it was safe to declare winters perpetually wimpy in Minnesota.
February 2013 is going down in the books as a rigorous winter month. This is now the snowiest month in 2 years in the metro.
Temperature trends this (meteorological) winter have taken a nosedive. Check out the monthly average temperature trend since December.
MSP Airport
December +3.7F
January +1.3F
February -1.7F
As we head toward the last week February, it looks as if we're poised to wrap up meteorological winter about +1.1F overall in the metro. That's respectably close to an "average Minnesota winter."
We've shoveled 31.3" of snow so far this winter in the metro...and 70.3" in International Falls.
And we're not even close to done yet.
Next Winter Storm Takes Aim:
The next system in our February snow blitz is on the way.
This is a panhandle hooker, winding up in the Oklahoma Panhandle Thursday morning and shooting north into Iowa by Friday.
Our arctic air dome overhead will assure all snow with this one. That's good news for us as forecasters, because at least we should realize the full snow potential with this system.
The Euro (.54") & NAM (.46") are the leaders with liquid precip predictions with this one. The GFS suggests a weaker system with just .26" liquid.
Cold air should bring a "drier" snow...with snow:water ratios as high as 15:1.
It's still early, but if the Euro & NAM solutions pan out...that should translate into a wide area of 4" to 8" snowfall potential across the southern half of Minnesota by late Friday night.
nam msp snow.PNG
The system will peak in strength over Kansas, Nebraska and western Iowa.
Anywhere from 12" to 20" of snow could fall in these areas...that's great news for the heart of the Midwest Drought.
Snow nam.PNG
It won't soak into parched (still frozen) soils, but the melt will help boost river levels this spring.
That's the good side of a heavy winter snowfall.
A second incoming storm brings another chance of snow...possibly mixed with rain and ice early Sunday night into Monday of next week.
That would make our 9th storm this month by my count.
This February, the weather hits just keep on comin'!
Want some good (as in warmer) news?
The ray of hope in the long range forecast is the maps are hinting at a major thaw potential after about March 5th or 6th. Could temps in the 40s, melting snow and dripping icicles be in our future?
Stay tuned.


Captain on GREY GOOSE said...

The blog posting has all content in the "content window". DO NOT CLICK THE ABOVE TEST LINK !!!

Captain on GREY GOOSE said...

I deleted the Anonymous post with a hypertext link.

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