Newly published research says climate change has already altered seasons in the Arctic to make them more like southern regions.
And while tundra plant communities are already becoming shrubbier, scientists behind the paper say there's no way to predict what's going to happen as the change continues.
"We are doing a strange experiment," said Ranga Myneni of Boston University, co-author of the paper published Sunday in Nature Climate Change.
It's long been known that climate change is proceeding more quickly in the Arctic than anywhere else — about twice the global average.
Myneni, one of an international group of scientists behind the research, decided to look at how that warming is happening. He and his fellow researchers found the effect was on the difference between the seasons.
The amount that temperatures change as the seasons pass depends on latitude, said Myneni.
"In any given year, you start with a horizontal line that's the temperature profile of the equatorial regions. Gradually, you build up a bell shape as you go further north."
But most of the warming that's happening in the Arctic is taking place in winter, with somewhat less happening in spring and fall and the least occurring in the summer.
"If you start warming the winters more, and the transitional seasons a little bit more, you're basically flattening out the bell shape," Myneni said. "The bell in the North is looking less like a bell shape."
In effect, he said, climate change is giving the Arctic the temperature profile of the south.
Using satellite data, the team found the change that's already happened is equivalent to about five degrees of latitude. They then averaged 17 different climate models to suggest that by the end of the century, Victoria Island will have the same temperature profile as Wyoming.
What effect that will have on the plants and animals of the North is anyone's guess, Myneni said. Shrubs are already growing further north.
Myneni points out that warmer temperatures don't mean more hours of daylight. Nor will they improve thin Arctic soils or prevent melting permafrost from destabilizing the land.
There are too many variables in play to guess what's going to grow in the North or how that will affect associated animals.
"The Arctic is a feast for two-and-a-half months," Myneni said. "There's a tremendous amount of food available."
Animals from birds to whales flock north to take advantage, but timing is everything.
"It's seasonality that is important," he said. "Once you change seasonality, the whole food web is connected to that. We could not predict what the next 90 years will hold in terms of biology."
More research on the future of the Arctic is needed to try and understand what's in store, said Myneni.
http://www.timescolonist.com/news/weather/study-finds-climate-change-is-making-arctic-seasons-more-like-south-1.88630
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Start Geo-Engineering The Arctic By Spring 2013 Or Face Catastrophe!
As many everyday people have been observing atmospheric aerosol spraying taking place over the years, and billionaires like Bill Gates keep pouring money into Geo-engineering programs. I have known that a large public push for the weather manipulation programs was not far away.
Between the countless main stream news articles being published on the topic (on a daily basis) and countless scientist calling for the programs. It is not a hard thing to piece together.
That public push now seems to be in full tilt. A group called AMEG (Arctic Methane Emergency Group) has been lobbying the British government in recent months to begin Geo-engineering the arctic in an attempt to combat the melting ice.
Here is an example of their ideas in the response section of the AMEG website.
Notes on Geoengineering Requirements to Avert Catastrophic Global Warming from a Sudden Large Emission of Methane, Arctic Methane Emergency Group, December 2011:
Flux to be overcome to save the sea ice
• Arctic warming is much faster than global warming, by a factor of about 6 times, and the warming is accelerating, due to positive feedback.
• Warming is mostly driven by currents from the Atlantic and the loss of albedo effect.
• The extra heat flux, which is warming the Arctic with respect to its pre-industrial temperature, is currently of the order of one petawatt.
• September sea ice volume trend is to zero in 2014 or 2015, by which time the heat flux would be nearly double what it is at present.
• This could be a point of no return, when it becomes impossible to prevent further retreat of the sea ice, with accelerated Arctic warming causing ever larger methane emissions in a feedback loop until runaway global warming becomes inevitable.
• Geoengineering techniques for cooling the Arctic have to be applied by spring 2013 to reduce that risk as far as it is possible to do so.
ameg.me/index.php/response
According to the AMEG group, Geo-engineering of the arctic must begin by the spring of 2013, to avoid a global catastrophe.
Another study that now has been published, is stating that the Sulpher Dioxide released by volcanoes is creating a protective layer in the atmosphere and block the sun. (exactly what the goal of aerosol spraying is). They also state that this could be the reason behind the stall in global warming in recent times.
Volcanic eruptions may counter the effects of global warming and help keep the planet cool, according to a new study that explores why the Earth hasn’t warmed as much as predicted over the past decade.
Active volcanoes spew sulphur dioxide, which rises up to the stratosphere. Scientists say the sulphur dioxide provides a protective layer that reflects sunlight back into space — keeping the planet cooler than it would have been otherwise
Previous theories had suggested microscopic pollutants from smokestacks in China and India were responsible for the layer of sulphur dioxide, approximately 20 to 32 kilometres above the Earth. But Ryan Neely, lead author of the study, says industrial pollution had little or no effect on temperatures.
“This new study indicates it is emissions from small to moderate volcanoes that have been slowing the warming of the planet,” said Neely, a scientist at the University of Colorado at Boulder.
Between 2000 and 2010, the researchers studied the atmosphere and found the average concentration of carbon dioxide – the gas that leads to global warming — rose more than 5 per cent.
That increase, on its own, should have led to a 0.2 C rise in average global temperatures.
But because the layer of aerosol particles was thickening in the atmosphere at the same time, as much as 25 per cent of that increase was counteracted.
Aerosols are measured by their “optical depth,” or transparency.
“Since 2000, the optical depth in the stratospheric aerosol layer has increased by about 4 to 7 per cent (annually), meaning it is slightly more opaque now than in previous years,” says a release accompanying the study.
Scientists have been aware that aerosols are increasing in the planet’s stratosphere, but they haven’t agreed on the cause.
Some scientists argued that Asia was the source, largely because coal-fired generators in China and India triggered a 60 per cent increase in sulfur dioxide emissions between 2000 and 2010.
Neely and his colleagues countered this theory by comparing recorded stratospheric aerosol levels with known volcanic eruptions.
They used two sophisticated computer models in their study. One model allowed researchers to study the atmosphere’s aerosol layer, while the other allowed them to track the properties of specific aerosol emissions around the planet — and thereby isolate volcanic emissions from industrial emissions.
The two models were then combined to show the patterns of eruptions and the resulting effect in the atmosphere’s aerosol levels.
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Both of these examples are pushing for large scale Geo-engineering to start taking place publicly, from different prospectives. One one hand it is do it now or face catastrophe, and on the other it is “hey look” it is happening naturally. So why not just give it that extra little nudge.
The main stream media and NGO’s are working extra hard to give people every excuse to accept these destructive, foolish programs. Are you going to fall for it?
