Cape Bathurst ice choke point is just the beginning of the challenges ahead for west bound NW Passage yachts

20130902 PM UPDATE
CAPE BATHURST IS ONCE AGAIN AN ICE CHOKE-POINT

MV HANSEATIC WEBCAM PHOTO - CAPE BATHURST 4/10 but it looks 7/10+

### END UPDATE

20130902 AM

The Cape Bathurst ice choke-point has dissipated and is now much more navigable as Northwest Passage yachts voyage westward for the Arctic Circle finish line in the Bering Strait of Alaska. Nome Harbor really looks great!

There is an intense 979mb low pressure weather system in the Bering Sea moving to the northeast... the outlook for the Arctic Alaska coast is for increasing winds.... GALE!

Detailed forecasts are available online at: http://arctic.arh.noaa.gov/ or click the following linked graphic

SEA ICE?

BEAUFORT SEA...WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY FLOW MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE OVERALL NET ICE EDGE MOVEMENT WILL BE MINIMAL... HOWEVER THEHIGHER CONCENTRATION ICE AREAS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN TO THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A NET SHIFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO THE SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 NM.

CHUKCHI SEA...THE STRONGER WINDS WILL AID IN BREAKING APART ROTTEN ICE FLOES NEAR THE EDGE... DECREASING THE CONCENTRATION. THE NET ICE EDGE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE 20 TO 30NM TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 

Sea ice chart: http://arctic.arh.noaa.gov/ice_anal.php

20130903 UPDATE

...AUGUST 2013 ICE OUTLOOK...

THE AUGUST 2013 ICE RETREAT HAS BEEN MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN IN
THE PAST FEW YEARS. THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE ICE PACK WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SEPTEMBER AND REACH THE SEASONAL MINIMUM AROUND THE
FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER. 

IN THE CHUKCHI SEA A TONGUE OF ICE EXTENDS FROM THE MAIN PACK TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST ALASKA COAST. THIS ICE COULD THREATEN THE ALASKA COAST
FROM WAINWRIGHT TO POINT BARROW THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER
BY A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED NORTHWEST FLOW.  BY THE THIRD WEEK OF
SEPTEMBER THIS ICE WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTH OF 74N. 

IN THE BEAUFORT SEA THE MAIN ICE PACK WILL SLOWLY RETREAT TO NORTH OF
73N THROUGH THE SECOND WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. THE PACK EDGE SHOULD VARY
BETWEEN 73N AND 74N THROUGH THE END OF SEPTEMBER. 

KCOLE 2013